Deutsche Bank and J.P. Morgan will be the top issuers of CMBS when the final “league tables” are tallied for 2011. Deutsche and J.P. Morgan were in a dead heat for the top position as the year closed. Headed into year-end 2011, Deutsche has $6.8 billion of global CMBS credit, followed by J.P. Morgan at $6.6 billion. Deutsche’s $6.3 billion of U.S. bookrunner volume is narrowly ahead of J.P. Morgan’s $6.2 billion. Rounding out the Top 5 in both rankings: Wells Fargo ($4.3 billion), Bank of America ($2.9 billion) and UBS ($2.8 billion); of these three firms, none has had non-U.S. activity, so their global and U.S. totals are the same.
CMBS issuance in the United States nearly tripled in 2011 to $32.7 billion. While that is a significant improvement from $11.6 billion in 2010, it is below the year-earlier expectations of almost $40 billion. It also pales in comparison to the go-go years of 2005-2007, when annual volume ranged as high as $229 billion. Non-U.S. issuance is up only slightly, to $3.3 billion, putting global issuance at $36 billion.
“Although no one is asking, my prediction for 2012 is $50 billion of CMBS issuance,” said Michael D. Sneden, Executive Vice President at ValueXpress. “Spreads are trending down and investor appetite is good; as long as Europe can contain its debt problems, I think we can hit this number.”